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US-EU trade deal talks: Donald Trump sees '50/50 chance' as August 1 tariff deadline nears; EU readies $109 bn retaliation plan if talks fail

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US President Donald Trump on Friday said there was a “50/50 chance” of securing a trade agreement with the European Union to lower import tariffs , as the deadline for new US duties looms large.

“I would say that we have a 50/50 chance, maybe less than that, but a 50/50 chance of making a deal with the EU,” Trump told reporters before departing the White House for a trip to Scotland, quoted AFP.

The Trump administration has set an August 1 deadline for dozens of countries to finalise trade pacts or face steep tariff hikes. In April, the US had announced a temporary pause on the imposition of higher duties under its “90 deals in 90 days” initiative. So far, only five agreements have been reached — including with the UK, Japan and the Philippines.

While EU member states have tasked the European Commission with leading negotiations, Trump has threatened to impose 30% tariffs on EU exports if no deal is signed by the end of the month.

According to multiple diplomats cited by AFP, the US and EU are moving closer to a compromise that includes a 15% baseline tariff on European goods, with possible carve-outs for key sectors.

However, EU states on Thursday approved a retaliatory package worth $109 billion (93 billion euros), set to come into effect on August 7 if the negotiations fall short.

Trump said that “most” of the deals he is pursuing are “done” — though he clarified that he was referring to letters notifying countries about the imposition of tariffs, not fully negotiated free trade agreements.

“I don’t want to hurt countries, but we’re going to send a letter out sometime during the week, and it’s basically going to say, ‘You’re going to pay 10 percent, you’re going to pay 15 percent, you’re going to pay maybe less,’ I don’t know,” Trump said.

The president also acknowledged that tariffs on other countries are typically borne by US importers and consumers.

On other trade fronts, Trump said negotiations with Canada have stalled and reiterated the possibility of a 35% tariff on Canadian exports. He described the talks as not having had “a lot of luck.”

On China, Trump suggested progress, saying the two countries are within the “confines of a deal.” China is the US’s third-largest trading partner in goods this year.
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